Insights: Elections

Elections, Macro

House/Senate Outlook, 2026/2027 Policy Implications

Indicators for the midterm election cycle have been consistently negative for Republicans over the last two months, particularly results in the November NJ and VA elections, the special election in the TN-7 House district, and more modest than expected dynamics for Republicans in the re-districting process. The macro political environment has...

Federal Elections

It appears House Republicans are on track to win a net ~2-4 seats, retaining a very narrow majority of ~223-226 votes. With a 218 vote majority required for bills to pass in the House, Republicans will only be able to spare ~5-8 votes, which means a small faction will have leverage on legislation that passes on a partisan basis. Since both...

Federal Elections

As of this morning, former President Trump has won the swing states of GA, NC, PA and WI, providing him 276 electoral votes (EVs), above the 270 necessary to win. The races in AZ, MI, and NV have not been called, but they are all leaning in Trump’s direction. It also appears Trump is on track to win the popular vote. While there appeared to be...