Insights: Macro

Stimulus Checks, Tariff Legislation

White House Deputy Chief of Staff Blair yesterday signaled that the Trump administration is developing a plan for “affordability” legislation that could include stimulus checks and healthcare payments to individuals (presumably through their HSAs), which would be offset by new authority to impose tariffs (i.e., the Congressional Budget Office...

Russia-related Tariffs/Sanctions

President Trump has said he would be “ok” with Congress passing legislation that would allow the U.S. to impose tariffs up to 500% on countries that buy Russian energy. Trump suggested that Congress should alter the legislation so that it applies to Iran as well. White House officials reiterated that Trump will support the bill if it is changed...

Mexico/Canada Trade (USMCA)

USTR recently collected comments on the U.S.-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) Free Trade Agreement review, with various stakeholders calling for changes to the agreement that provide insight into issues that will arise in eventual negotiations. The official USMCA review will begin next July. Meanwhile, the U.S. recently extended for “a few weeks” a trade...

Stimulus Checks

President Trump posted yesterday that a “dividend” of $2k will be provided to individuals (not including “high income people”). He implied this would be financed via tariff revenue. Secretary Bessent said that he has not spoken to Trump about the idea and that tariff revenue is being used to reduce the deficit. Legislation must be enacted in...

Healthcare, Macro

Government Shutdown, ACA

The Senate last night passed a procedural motion 60-to-40 that will allow for a vote in the coming days on legislation to end the government shutdown. The motion passed with the support of eight Democratic Senators. The legislation includes a “continuing resolution (CR)” to fund the government through 1/30/26, three full-year FY26 appropriations...

Trade (IEEPA/Supreme Court Aftermath)

Assuming the Supreme Court bars the use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose broad-based country-specific tariffs, questions arise around whether and how refunds will be available to the firms that have paid them this year (a total estimated at ~$90b at this point), as well as whether and how the administration will...