Insights: Macro

IEEPA Tariffs and the Supreme Court

The Supreme Court (SCOTUS) is scheduled to issue its first opinions of the year this Friday (1/9). This will represent the first opportunity for the Court to issue their opinion in Trump v. V.O.S. Selections, the case concerning the President's imposition of tariffs under IEEPA, though there is no specific indication the IEEPA decision will come...

Elections, Macro

House/Senate Outlook, 2026/2027 Policy Implications

Indicators for the midterm election cycle have been consistently negative for Republicans over the last two months, particularly results in the November NJ and VA elections, the special election in the TN-7 House district, and more modest than expected dynamics for Republicans in the re-districting process. The macro political environment has...

Housing Affordability Initiatives

The White House has recognized that President Trump’s approval rating on the economy has notably deteriorated and that they need to take actions to address voter concern about affordability in order for Republicans to avoid significant losses in the midterm elections. Housing is among the areas the White House has targeted, with NEC Director...

Financials, Macro

Fed/Supreme Court

The Supreme Court (SCOTUS) yesterday heard oral arguments in the Slaughter case – the first of the various lawsuits challenging President Trump’s ability to fire members of independent boards to appear before the court for argumentation. As a reminder, SCOTUS has scheduled separate oral arguments in the Cook case – regarding the legality of...

Financials, Macro

Federal Reserve/Chair Nomination

A variety of developments have occurred that suggest President Trump is preparing to nominate NEC Director Hassett to a seat on the Fed Board and as Chair. Some market participants have reportedly expressed concern to Treasury Secretary Bessent that Hassett would be too willing to cut rates aggressively to please Trump. However, a number of...

Stimulus Checks, Tariff Legislation

White House Deputy Chief of Staff Blair yesterday signaled that the Trump administration is developing a plan for “affordability” legislation that could include stimulus checks and healthcare payments to individuals (presumably through their HSAs), which would be offset by new authority to impose tariffs (i.e., the Congressional Budget Office...