Insights: Macro

Stimulus Checks

President Trump posted yesterday that a “dividend” of $2k will be provided to individuals (not including “high income people”). He implied this would be financed via tariff revenue. Secretary Bessent said that he has not spoken to Trump about the idea and that tariff revenue is being used to reduce the deficit. Legislation must be enacted in...

Healthcare, Macro

Government Shutdown, ACA

The Senate last night passed a procedural motion 60-to-40 that will allow for a vote in the coming days on legislation to end the government shutdown. The motion passed with the support of eight Democratic Senators. The legislation includes a “continuing resolution (CR)” to fund the government through 1/30/26, three full-year FY26 appropriations...

Trade (IEEPA/Supreme Court Aftermath)

Assuming the Supreme Court bars the use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose broad-based country-specific tariffs, questions arise around whether and how refunds will be available to the firms that have paid them this year (a total estimated at ~$90b at this point), as well as whether and how the administration will...

Trade (IEEPA/Supreme Court)

The Supreme Court heard oral arguments regarding President Trump’s imposition of tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). Trump has used IEEPA to impose his sweeping “reciprocal” country-based tariffs. He used Sec. 301 to impose his first term tariffs on China and Sec. 232 to impose sector-based tariffs. Those...

Government Shutdown

Senate Majority Leader Thune has repeatedly commented over the last few days that he feels the government shutdown is getting close to ending, a sentiment echoed by various Democrats as well (e.g., Sens. Durbin (D-IL), Slotkin (D-MI), Cortez-Masto (D-NV), others). Democrats are reportedly increasingly open to Thune’s prior offer to support a...

The U.S. and China agreed to a one-year trade truce in which the U.S. will reduce fentanyl tariffs by 10% and ease export controls while China will buy U.S. agricultural goods and ease rare earth export controls, among other promised trade-offs. The deal does not address increased sales to China of advanced semiconductor chips, nor the U.S....