Insights: Macro

Funding for all parts of the government is in place through the end of FY26 on 9/30, except for the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), which contains ICE, Customs and Border Patrol (CBP), FEMA, TSA, and the Coast Guard. Temporary DHS funding expires tomorrow, at which point a shutdown of operations will occur. The White House and Senate...

IEEPA Tariffs/Congress

The International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) statute gives Congress the opportunity to pass a resolution on a privileged basis (i.e., expedited consideration, 50 rather than 60 vote threshold in the Senate) that negates actions (including tariffs) taken under its authority. The Senate has passed multiple resolutions to overturn various...

Fed Chair/Warsh Confirmation Process

Sen. Tillis (R-NC), a member of the Senate Banking Committee (SBC), which is responsible for confirming members of the Fed, praised President Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh but signaled his continued unwillingness to vote for him until the DOJ drops its criminal investigation of Chair Powell. SBC Chair Scott (R-SC) also praised Warsh and said...

Government Shutdown

Negotiations between key Republican and Democratic players in the Senate have been ongoing over the last two days to find a path forward for passing FY26 appropriations (funding) legislation for the six areas of the government that remain unresolved. Temporary funding runs out this Saturday 1/31 and if appropriations legislation is not passed by...

Government Shutdown

Temporary appropriations (funding) for the government runs out at the end of this week (1/31), and if Congress does not pass the remaining FY26 funding bills, 90% of the government will shut down (though emergency operations will remain open, as occurred during last fall’s shutdown). Congress was moving in a rapid and bipartisan fashion over the...

Fed/Supreme Court/Cook

The Supreme Court (SCOTUS) yesterday held oral arguments in Trump v. Cook, which as you may recall, is an emergency dispute over whether President Trump can remove Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook “for cause” now (based on allegations of mortgage fraud), or whether she must remain in office while the legality of her removal is litigated. As a...