Insights: Policy

Government Shutdown

Multiple upcoming deadlines this week (i.e., pay dates for federal workers and the military, issuance of ACA premium notices, expiration of SNAP (food stamp) spending) imply that we are at a culminating point for the government shutdown. We are seeing a modest increase in external pressure from some Democratic-aligned stakeholders (e.g., AFGE,...

House/Senate 2026 Midterms

Democrats are marginally likely (55% probability) to win the net three+ seats required for a majority in the House. The primary arguments for Democrats winning a House majority are the strong historical trend against the President’s party in midterm elections; President Trump’s low approval rating, particularly on his handling of the economy; and...

Healthcare, Macro

Government Shutdown, ACA, HSAs

There have been virtually no indications in the last couple of days that either side is feeling pressure to shift positions on the government shutdown and there are no major inflection points this week that would create an incentive for it to end. However, there are a number next week that create a notable incentive to re-open the government,...

Tech / Media / Telecom

AI/Semiconductors

While the Commerce Department recently tightened some pre-existing restrictions on chip sales to China, Trump’s more general policy has been to allow for sales of advanced chips (e.g., sales of Nvidia H20 to China and Gulf nations, comments suggesting openness to selling China the more advanced Blackwell chip.) This has generated concern among...

This morning, Secretary Bessent said there was substantial communication with the Chinese over the weekend to resolve the escalation in tensions the emerged on Friday. He also said that he still expects Presidents Trump and Xi to meet at the end of this month in South Korea. And, in the wake of his tariff escalation on Friday, Trump yesterday...

Government Shutdown

President Trump ordered DOD to pay U.S. troops this week, which eliminates a catalyst for resolving the current government shutdown. At this point, there is no indication either side feels significant pressure to concede. Democrats continue to insist that an extension of enhanced ACA subsidies gets resolved before they will support a “continuing...