Insights: Macro

Trade (IEEPA/Supreme Court)

The Supreme Court heard oral arguments regarding President Trump’s imposition of tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). Trump has used IEEPA to impose his sweeping “reciprocal” country-based tariffs. He used Sec. 301 to impose his first term tariffs on China and Sec. 232 to impose sector-based tariffs. Those...

Government Shutdown

Senate Majority Leader Thune has repeatedly commented over the last few days that he feels the government shutdown is getting close to ending, a sentiment echoed by various Democrats as well (e.g., Sens. Durbin (D-IL), Slotkin (D-MI), Cortez-Masto (D-NV), others). Democrats are reportedly increasingly open to Thune’s prior offer to support a...

The U.S. and China agreed to a one-year trade truce in which the U.S. will reduce fentanyl tariffs by 10% and ease export controls while China will buy U.S. agricultural goods and ease rare earth export controls, among other promised trade-offs. The deal does not address increased sales to China of advanced semiconductor chips, nor the U.S....

Russia Sanctions/Tariffs

In the wake of the U.S. and Europe increasing sanctions on Russia, there is a growing expectation in Congress that President Trump will support passage of a bill that would allow the U.S. to impose additional tariffs on countries that buy Russian energy and impose other sanctions. Senate Russia hawks want a vote on that bill within the next month...

Government Shutdown

Multiple upcoming deadlines this week (i.e., pay dates for federal workers and the military, issuance of ACA premium notices, expiration of SNAP (food stamp) spending) imply that we are at a culminating point for the government shutdown. We are seeing a modest increase in external pressure from some Democratic-aligned stakeholders (e.g., AFGE,...

Healthcare, Macro

Government Shutdown, ACA, HSAs

There have been virtually no indications in the last couple of days that either side is feeling pressure to shift positions on the government shutdown and there are no major inflection points this week that would create an incentive for it to end. However, there are a number next week that create a notable incentive to re-open the government,...