Insights: Macro

Government Shutdown

Temporary appropriations (funding) for the government runs out at the end of this week (1/31), and if Congress does not pass the remaining FY26 funding bills, 90% of the government will shut down (though emergency operations will remain open, as occurred during last fall’s shutdown). Congress was moving in a rapid and bipartisan fashion over the...

Fed/Supreme Court/Cook

The Supreme Court (SCOTUS) yesterday held oral arguments in Trump v. Cook, which as you may recall, is an emergency dispute over whether President Trump can remove Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook “for cause” now (based on allegations of mortgage fraud), or whether she must remain in office while the legality of her removal is litigated. As a...

Defense Industry Compensation/Capital Distributions

President Trump earlier this month issued an executive order (EO) that would cap executive pay for defense contractors and limit dividends and stock buybacks. Trump said the EO is designed to address “how slowly these Companies are delivering vital Equipment to our Military, and our Allies.” It is notable that key Congressional players on...

Defense Spending

Bipartisan leaders of House and Senate Appropriations Committees unveiled their FY26 defense appropriations bill this week, which allocates $839.2b for the Pentagon, ~$10b more than the White House requested. The House is planning to pass the bill tomorrow and the Senate will do so next week, ahead of the 1/31 date at which temporary funding...

Fed/Supreme Court

The Supreme Court (SCOTUS) will hold oral arguments in Trump v. Cook next Wednesday (1/21). Trump v. Cook is an emergency dispute over whether President Trump can remove Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook “for cause” now (based on allegations of mortgage fraud), or whether she must remain in office while the legality of her removal is...

Fed/Powell Investigation

Republicans have continued to escalate their criticism of DOJ’s criminal investigation into Fed Chair Powell, with Sen. Tillis (R-NC), a member of the Senate Banking Committee (SBC), which is responsible for taking the first step in confirming Fed nominees, saying that he will not vote to confirm any nominees until the investigation is closed....