Insights: Macro

FY26 Funding/Government Shutdown, ACA

Funding for discretionary programs (i.e., loans, grants, military, other government operations - not mandatory/entitlement programs) ceases on 9/30, and if a new “appropriations” bill to fund these programs is not enacted by then, they will shut down. The House today passed a “continuing resolution (CR)” on a partisan Republican basis to sustain...

FY26 Government Funding/Shutdown, ACA

House and Senate Republicans appear to be planning for votes next week on a “continuing resolution (CR)" that extends FY26 government funding (appropriations) through 11/20. Without a CR, government operations (loans, grants, other non-entitlement programs) will shut down on 10/1.

IEEPA Litigation

In a 7-4 decision, the Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit upheld a decision from the U.S. Court of International Trade (CIT) blocking President Trump’s imposition of tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). The decision (involving two cases, V.O.S. Selections v. U.S. and Oregon v. U.S.). The Federal Circuit...

As we’ve previously noted, there is some interest among Republicans in passing another reconciliation bill or two (i.e., tax/mandatory spending (entitlements) bill that can be passed on a partisan basis). They have two procedural opportunities to do so in the coming year - under the FY26 and FY27 budget resolutions.

FY26 Appropriations

Congress is in the midst of passing appropriations legislation to sustain government funding (i.e., grants/loans/programs, not entitlements) beyond its current expiration at the end of FY25 on 9/30. House Republicans are pursuing a partisan approach to cutting non-defense spending levels (by ~6% on average) and flat for defense, while the Senate...

Federal Reserve Board

Activity surrounding President Trump’s reshaping of the Fed Board significantly accelerated this week with his effort to fire Fed Board Governor Cook, his comments suggesting he will try to quickly replace her, and additional signs emerging that Republicans are moving to quickly confirm Stephen Miran, Trump’s nominee to fill the seat vacated...