Insights: Macro

Russia Sanctions

Senate Majority Leader Thune and Speaker Johnson said they are ready to advance a Russia sanctions bill that would impose tariffs on countries that buy Russian energy and secondary sanctions on firms that support Russia’s energy sector. President Trump, who is increasingly frustrated with Russian President Putin, signaled support for the...

Financials, Healthcare, Macro, Tech / Media / Telecom

Reconciliation and Recissions

Speaker Johnson (R-LA), House Budget Committee Chair Arrington (R-TX), and Senate Finance Committee Chair Crapo (R-ID) have all confirmed their intent to enact another two reconciliation bills prior to the next election, with the first coming this fall. As I previously noted, Speaker Johnson, Rep. Roy (R-TX), and Sen. Johnson (R-WI) had already...

Reciprocal Tariffs and Trade Deals

President Trump yesterday posted 12 letters sent to various countries, including to major trading partners such as Japan and South Korea, indicating various tariffs that would be imposed if deals are not concluded by 8/1, representing an extension of the original 7/9 deadline. The tariff levels are similar to those initially announced on 4/2...

Energy, Financials, Healthcare, Macro, Tech / Media / Telecom

Senate Republicans yesterday overcame the first procedural hurdle in passing the reconciliation bill and are planning for a Monday vote on final passage, though numerous of them continue to have reservations. House Majority Leader Scalise (R-LA) has indicated a House vote on the bill could take place by Tuesday or Wednesday, though a significant...

Energy, Healthcare, Macro

The Senate parliamentarian has deemed numerous provisions of the reconciliation bill, including major components of the planned Medicaid cuts, procedurally impermissible, which some estimates suggest would add ~$250b in deficit impact back to the bill. Finance Committee Chair Crapo (R-ID) indicated to his colleagues late yesterday that the...

Energy, Healthcare, Macro

President Trump is intensifying his push to have the reconciliation bill enacted by July 4th. It appears the Senate parliamentarian will continue her review of the bill through today, with Majority Leader Thune now planning to commence with consideration of the bill on the Senate floor tomorrow and concluding over the weekend, giving the House...