Insights: Miscellaneous

Farmer Assistance

President Trump’s tariffs have elevated Congressional attention on the financial hardship that many farmers are facing. Although the administration has already announced $12b in direct payments to certain types of farmers, there have recently been calls from several key players in Congress to provide $15b+ in additional assistance. Additionally,...

Energy, Financials, Healthcare, Housing, Infrastructure, Macro, Miscellaneous, Tech / Media / Telecom

State of the Union

President Trump will deliver his State of the Union (SOTU) speech next Tuesday, 2/24, and if precedent holds, is likely to issue his FY27 budget request by ~mid-March. The annual budget request provides a more granular overview of the administration’s policy priorities, and along with the speech, influences how the President’s allies in Congress...

President Trump signed an executive order (EO) directing the Attorney General (AG) to “take all necessary steps” to complete the rulemaking process related to rescheduling marijuana to Schedule III of the Controlled Substances Act (CSA).

Defense Spending

The final version of the annual defense policy bill (NDAA) passed the House this week and will pass the Senate next week. NDAA includes a non-binding target for FY26 defense spending that is ~$7b higher than FY25, but the actual spending level is set via separate FY26 defense appropriations legislation, which is likely to be resolved in January....

House/Senate 2026 Midterms

Democrats are marginally likely (55% probability) to win the net three+ seats required for a majority in the House. The primary arguments for Democrats winning a House majority are the strong historical trend against the President’s party in midterm elections; President Trump’s low approval rating, particularly on his handling of the economy; and...

Defense Spending

The House has passed an FY26 defense appropriations bill that would provide the Pentagon ~$832b, matching the same level of spending in FY25, as requested by the White House. The Trump administration requested flat funding for DOD, given that the Republicans' recently enacted reconciliation bill provides ~$150b for defense spending, $113b of...