Insights: Miscellaneous

House/Senate 2026 Midterms

Democrats are marginally likely (55% probability) to win the net three+ seats required for a majority in the House. The primary arguments for Democrats winning a House majority are the strong historical trend against the President’s party in midterm elections; President Trump’s low approval rating, particularly on his handling of the economy; and...

Defense Spending

The House has passed an FY26 defense appropriations bill that would provide the Pentagon ~$832b, matching the same level of spending in FY25, as requested by the White House. The Trump administration requested flat funding for DOD, given that the Republicans' recently enacted reconciliation bill provides ~$150b for defense spending, $113b of...

Gambling Tax in OBBBA

Backlash is beginning to emerge – from stakeholder groups, voters, and some bipartisan lawmakers – regarding the constraints on gambling loss deductions included in Republican’s recently enacted reconciliation bill (OBBBA). Stakeholders, such as the American Gaming Association and the National Thoroughbred Racing Association, are ramping up an...