Insights: Macro

Following three rounds of negotiations with Iran on reaching a new nuclear deal, President Trump yesterday threatened secondary sanctions on any country that does business with Iran. Those comments come after Trump said last week that he is open to meeting with Iranian leadership to secure a new nuclear deal and that he still prefers diplomacy to...

Reconciliation & Debt Limit

As noted in our update last week (see this link), House committees are voting on the spending components of the reconciliation bill over the next two weeks. The House Ways and Means (W&M) Committee, which is responsible for tax legislation reportedly has a tentative plan to vote on 5/12-13. However, a member of the committee (Rep. Lahood (R-IL))...

Energy, Financials, Healthcare, Macro, Tech / Media / Telecom

In the coming weeks, House Republicans are planning to take the first steps on their “reconciliation” (tax/spending) legislation, with different committees voting on the individual components of the bill for which they are each responsible. Speaker Johnson continues to say he wants to have the reconciliation bill enacted into law by the end of...

Financials, Macro

China Capital Flows & Restrictions

Treasury Secretary Bessent said in recent days that “everything is on the table” in response to a question about whether the administration would consider de-listing Chinese securities from U.S. exchanges. Doing so has been actively considered by policy makers since President Trump’s first term, alongside other possible restrictions on capital...

House Republicans are this week attempting to adopt the version of the budget resolution passed by the Senate last week, which sets the basic deficit parameters of the subsequent “reconciliation” (tax/spending) bill they will enact on a partisan basis. Their attempts to do so have been delayed by objections from conservatives who have concerns...

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) is projecting that the "X date" for the debt limit (i.e., date at which the government runs out of cash) will be reached in August/September, but may be reached as early as May if tax receipts come in lower than anticipated. As you may recall, House Republicans included "instructions" in their budget...