Insights: Macro

FY26 Appropriations

Congress is in the midst of passing appropriations legislation to sustain government funding (i.e., grants/loans/programs, not entitlements) beyond its current expiration at the end of FY25 on 9/30. House Republicans are pursuing a partisan approach to cutting non-defense spending levels (by ~6% on average) and flat for defense, while the Senate...

Federal Reserve Board

Activity surrounding President Trump’s reshaping of the Fed Board significantly accelerated this week with his effort to fire Fed Board Governor Cook, his comments suggesting he will try to quickly replace her, and additional signs emerging that Republicans are moving to quickly confirm Stephen Miran, Trump’s nominee to fill the seat vacated...

Reciprocal Trade Negotiations and Sectoral Tariffs

The U.S. and EU this morning made a joint statement on the terms of the trade deal they had preliminarily reached in July. U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) Greer said earlier this month that his emphasis is on finalizing terms of various preliminary deals rather than striking new deals, though they were welcomed. Treasury Secretary Bessent that...

Russian Oil Tariffs/Sanctions

President Trump imposed a 50% tariff on India related to its purchases of Russian energy products. He has said in recent weeks that he would use tariffs and sanctions to coerce Russia to negotiate an end to its war against Ukraine. Unnamed White House officials have reportedly signaled that tariffs on other countries are expected to be imposed...

In anticipation of tomorrow’s deadline, President Trump has announced that “reciprocal trade” deals have been reached with all top trading partners other than China, India, Canada, Mexico, and Taiwan. Lower-level negotiations are ongoing to fill in the details of these deals and legal text is likely to emerge within a couple of weeks as occurred...

FY26 Appropriations and Recissions

The Senate is this week taking its initial steps to pass FY26 appropriations legislation (i.e., annually allocated funding for government operations, grants, loans, etc.), with a focus on Military Construction/VA, Agriculture, Commerce/State/Justice, and Legislative Branch. Appropriations bills need to pass the Senate on a bipartisan (60+ vote)...