Insights: Macro

The Trump administration’s tariff policy remains unsettled, but there are a number of dynamics that are clear... (a) President Trump continues to emphasize in interviews and discussions with Congressional Republicans that tariffs are a central part of his economic agenda, (b) he wants to impose broad-based “universal” tariffs, particularly related...

Macro, Tech / Media / Telecom

Export Controls & Tariffs (AI/Semiconductors)

In reaction to the Chinese app DeepSeek showing high levels of performance using less than fully advanced semiconductors, China hawks in Congress are calling upon the Trump administration to strengthen semiconductor export controls. Howard Lutnick, President Trump’s nominee for Commerce Secretary (which has jurisdiction over export controls) said...

Reconciliation & Debt Limit

House Republicans are conducting their planning retreat in Florida this week, at which they are trying to achieve unity on their various fiscal priorities. Thus far, they have not outlined any plans beyond those on which we commented last Friday. The most notable development was a speech by President Trump, at which he not only re-iterated his...