Insights: Macro

Russia Tariffs and Sanctions

Earlier this week, Senate Majority Leader Thune said he will not advance Russia sanctions legislation after President Trump committed to use his existing authorities to punish Russia if it does not agree to a peace deal with Ukraine by 9/2. This is a shift in position from last week when both Thune and Speaker Johnson, with the backing of the...

Criticism of Federal Reserve Chair Powell

President Trump and his team have in the last few days materially increased their criticism of Fed Chair Powell, arguing that he has waited too long to lower interest rates and that he has not properly managed renovations of the Fed’s headquarters buildings. Trump has reiterated that he does not intend to fire Powell, but the White House appears...

Russia Sanctions

Senate Majority Leader Thune and Speaker Johnson said they are ready to advance a Russia sanctions bill that would impose tariffs on countries that buy Russian energy and secondary sanctions on firms that support Russia’s energy sector. President Trump, who is increasingly frustrated with Russian President Putin, signaled support for the...

Financials, Healthcare, Macro, Tech / Media / Telecom

Reconciliation and Recissions

Speaker Johnson (R-LA), House Budget Committee Chair Arrington (R-TX), and Senate Finance Committee Chair Crapo (R-ID) have all confirmed their intent to enact another two reconciliation bills prior to the next election, with the first coming this fall. As I previously noted, Speaker Johnson, Rep. Roy (R-TX), and Sen. Johnson (R-WI) had already...

Reciprocal Tariffs and Trade Deals

President Trump yesterday posted 12 letters sent to various countries, including to major trading partners such as Japan and South Korea, indicating various tariffs that would be imposed if deals are not concluded by 8/1, representing an extension of the original 7/9 deadline. The tariff levels are similar to those initially announced on 4/2...

Energy, Financials, Healthcare, Macro, Tech / Media / Telecom

Senate Republicans yesterday overcame the first procedural hurdle in passing the reconciliation bill and are planning for a Monday vote on final passage, though numerous of them continue to have reservations. House Majority Leader Scalise (R-LA) has indicated a House vote on the bill could take place by Tuesday or Wednesday, though a significant...