Insights: Macro

Energy, Healthcare, Macro

The Senate parliamentarian has deemed numerous provisions of the reconciliation bill, including major components of the planned Medicaid cuts, procedurally impermissible, which some estimates suggest would add ~$250b in deficit impact back to the bill. Finance Committee Chair Crapo (R-ID) indicated to his colleagues late yesterday that the...

Energy, Healthcare, Macro

President Trump is intensifying his push to have the reconciliation bill enacted by July 4th. It appears the Senate parliamentarian will continue her review of the bill through today, with Majority Leader Thune now planning to commence with consideration of the bill on the Senate floor tomorrow and concluding over the weekend, giving the House...

Energy, Healthcare, Macro

Last night, the Senate Finance Committee (SFC) released its draft contribution to the reconciliation bill, covering taxes and Medicaid. Notably, the SFC draft is more aggressive than the House version of the bill in cutting Medicaid, takes a slightly more moderate approach to the House’s cuts to IRA clean energy credits, and extends the SALT cap...

Energy, Financials, Healthcare, Macro, Tech / Media / Telecom

Senate Republican negotiations on changes to the House-passed reconciliation bill are intensifying. It appears that changes under consideration in the Senate increase the deficit by ~$600-700b beyond the House-passed bill’s $2.4t deficit impact, though there is consideration of adding provisions to try to close that gap. House conservatives are...

Energy, Financials, Healthcare, Macro, Tech / Media / Telecom

Senate Republicans have indicated that the committees responsible for various components of their emerging reconciliation legislation will be releasing draft text in the next couple of days. The Senate Finance Committee, which is responsible for taxes and entitlement programs (e.g., Medicaid, ACA) is likely to be last, with release of its text...

Russia Sanctions

President Trump is considering imposing additional sanctions on Russia following its recent attacks on Ukraine and its intransigence in negotiations, which Trump is threatening to abandon. Meanwhile on Capitol Hill, 80 senators have co-sponsored legislation that would impose new sanctions on Russia. G7 leaders also want to increase pressure on...